Germany's military buildup is necessary—but Europe's nervous for a reason

Friedrich Merz had a specific guest at the White House dinner this spring. Liana Fix, a German researcher most people outside foreign policy circles had never heard of, caught the chancellor's attention with a blunt piece in Foreign Affairs. Her argument? Germany could become Europe's next dominant power, and that military muscle might spook its neighbors in ways history still remembers.

The worry sounds paranoid on the surface. It's been 35 years since the Berlin Wall fell. Germany spent three decades deliberately weakening its military, positioning itself as a peaceful civilian power that talked disarmament instead of guns. That reputation wasn't just PR—it was genuine policy.

But something's shifted. Merz and his government are talking seriously about ramping up defense spending in ways that break from decades of restraint. And here's where it gets complicated: they're kind of right to do it. Russia isn't slowing down. Ukraine's still fighting. NATO needs muscle. Germany, being Europe's largest economy, can't keep sitting on the sidelines.

The problem isn't rearmament itself. It's how it happens. When Germany starts pumping cash into weapons without coordinating closely with allies, Europe starts getting nervous. Old patterns come back to mind—not because anyone thinks Merz is secretly planning conquest, but because military power concentrated in one country, moving fast without consensus, tends to create anxiety. It's just how alliances work.

Europe's not being irrational about this. France remembers the last time Germany got militarily strong without neighborhood agreement. Poland and the Baltics worry about what it means for their security if Germany builds independently. Even allies that support rearming want a seat at the table.

The real tension is this: Germany needs to spend more on defense, and it probably needs to do it faster than it would've liked. But speed without coordination breeds suspicion. The solution isn't for Berlin to pump the brakes on rearmament. It's for Germany to do it with its allies locked in, not pushed to the margins. That's harder than just writing bigger checks, but it's the only way to build the kind of military strength Europe actually needs without recreating the divisions that nearly destroyed it.